Day 1: What is at stake in Durban?

The most recent (2 years) climate negotiations have seen little progress in securing future global commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the overall consensus in Cancun that deep cuts need to take place to reach the 2°C target and that that emission cuts need to be reviewed by 2015, legally binding agreements have not been met.

The lack of commitment from developed nations to further reduce emissions, pressure on high emitting developing nations (China, Brazil, India) to take on legally binding targets, and the ongoing threat of a global financial crisis are all likely to impact the outcome in Durban.

            It is only day 1 of the conference, and there is as much optimisms as there is pessimism in the global media regarding what will happen in the next two weeks.

Here are my main initial thoughts on what is at stake in Durban:

·         The future of the Kyoto Protocol: This will be without doubt the main issue to be thoroughly debated towards the end of the conference. It is likely that high emitting developing countries will push for a second commitment period, as they will not be part of it. With Japan, Russia and Canada not signing on, a second commitment period is not likely to have any real impact on global emissions.

·         Role of emerging economies: It is acknowledged that rapidly growing economies, such as China, India and Brazil, significantly contribute to GHGs emissions. The aforementioned nations are likely to use the Convention’s principles on sustainable development to prevent any legally binding cuts from being placed on the countries. Despite this, the negotiations ought to strive towards finding a way of ensuring that these economies reduce their emissions.

·         Mention of agriculture?: Global agriculture emits a significant amount of GHGs into the atmosphere, however it is not mentioned in the Kyoto Protocol. Although it will be a long term process incorporating agriculture into mitigation, it should start in Durban.

·         Green Climate Fund: More on how it will be distributed to least developed countries

·         The future of clean development mechanisms: It will be interesting to see what happens in a post-Kyoto era. The proposal of incorporating carbon capture and storage as a means of reducing emissions into the atmosphere may have potential for high emitting countries.

The next two weeks are likely to be turbulent and full of disagreement between parties. It is imperative, however, that a decision is reached regarding the future of the Kyoto Protocol. The fact that it expires next year opens up a wide range of possibilities. Having a completely new document which is up to date with the current global status would be ideal.

The above points are only some of the many that will be explored throughout the next two weeks.